Phrases for Certainty & Probability

1️⃣ Warm-Up (Engage Learners)

👉 Discussion Starter:

• Ask students: “How sure are you that it will rain today?”
• Let them respond using simple words like Yes, No, Maybe.
• Introduce the concept of certainty (100%), probability (50-99%), and uncertainty (0-49%).

👉 Visual Scale Activity:

• Draw a scale on the board from 0% (Not at all sure) to 100% (Absolutely sure).
• Ask students to rate their certainty about different statements.

🔹 Example Statements:

• "The sun will rise tomorrow." (100% - Absolutely sure)
• "You will win a lottery." (Less than 1% - Almost impossible)
• "It might rain this evening." (50% - Uncertain)

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2️⃣ Introduce Key Phrases

👉 Teach them basic phrases with examples:

🔵 100% Sure (Certainty)

• I am sure… ✅ (I am sure he will come to class.)
• I am certain… ✅ (I am certain we have a test today.)
• There is no doubt… ✅ (There is no doubt that water is essential for life.)
• It is definitely… ✅ (It is definitely going to be a fun day.)
• It is obvious that… ✅ (It is obvious that he is happy.)

🟠 High Probability (80-99%)

• It is very likely… ✅ (It is very likely that she will win the competition.)
• There’s a good chance… ✅ (There’s a good chance we will finish early.)
• In all probability… ✅ (In all probability, they will pass the exam.)

🟡 Medium Probability (50-79%)

• It might… ✅ (It might rain later.)
• It could… ✅ (It could be true.)
• Maybe… ✅ (Maybe he forgot his homework.)
• There’s a possibility… ✅ (There’s a possibility she is right.)

🔴 Low Probability (1-49%)

• It’s unlikely… ✅ (It’s unlikely that she will arrive on time.)
• I doubt… ✅ (I doubt he will agree to that.)
• There’s little chance… ✅ (There’s little chance of success.)
• Probably not… ✅ (He will probably not come to the party.)

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3️⃣ Interactive Activities

💡 Activity 1: Probability Line Game

• Write different situations on slips of paper.
• Students place them on a certainty scale (0%-100%) and explain why.

💡 Activity 2: Role-Play Conversations

• Assign roles (Customer & Weather Forecaster, Student & Teacher, etc.).
• One student asks a question (“Will it rain tomorrow?”).
• The other responds using probability phrases (“It is very likely to rain.”).

💡 Activity 3: Certainty Challenge

• Give statements, and students change them using certainty/probability phrases.
• Example: “She will win the match.”
  • 🔹 High probability: “She is very likely to win the match.”
  • 🔸 Medium probability: “There’s a possibility she will win the match.”
  • 🔻 Low probability: “It’s unlikely that she will win.”